2016全国英语等级考试pets5级阅读真题预测
导语：阅读理解主要是考查考生的阅读能力，你知道今年的阅读题是什么吗?下面是小编为您收集整理的英语资料，希望对您有所帮助。
Part B
In the following article some paragraphs have been removed. For Questions 66 —— 70, choose the most suitable paragraph from the list A - F to fit into each of the numbered gaps. There is one paragraph which does not fit in any of the gaps. Mark your answers on ANSWER SHEET 1.
The press is constantly reminding us that the dramatic increase in the age of our population over the next 30 or so years will cause national healthcare systems to collapse, economies to crumple under the strain of pension de- mands and disintegrating families to buckle under increasing care commitments. Yet research at Oxford is beginning
to expose some of the widespread myths that underlie this rhetoric. Demographic ageing is undoubtedly a reality. Life expectancy in developed counties has risen continuously over the past century, increasing the percentage of those over the age of 60 relative to those under the age of 15. By 2030 half the population of Western Europe will be over the age of 50, with a predicted average life expectancy of a further 40 years. By then, a quarter of the popula- tion will be over 65 and by 2050 the UK' s current number of 10, 000 centenarians are predicted to have reached a quarter of a million. Some demographers have even suggested that half of all baby girls born in the West today will live to see the next century.
Indeed, if this could be achieved throughout the world, it would surely count as the success of civilization, for then we would also have conquered the killers of poverty, disease, famine and war.
Decreasing mortality rates, increasing longevity and declining fertility mean smaller percentages of young people within populations. Over the past 20 years life expectancy at birth in the UK has risen by four years for men ( to 75) and three years for women ( to 80). Meanwhile fertility rates across Europe have declined more or less continuously over the past 40 years and remain well below the levels required for European populations to be able to replace them- selves without substantive immigration. But again, rather than seeing this as a doom and gloom scenario, we need to explore the positive aspects of these demographics. The next 50 years should provide us with an opportunity to enjoy the many advanta——,es of a society with a mature oooulaticn structure.
The first of these is the current political rhetoric which claims that health services across the Western world are collapsing under the strain of demographic ageing.
The second myth is the view that the ratio of workers to non-workers will become so acute that Western econo- mies will collapse, compounded by a massive growth in pension debt. While there are undoubted concerns over cur- rent pension shortfalls, it is also clear that working lives will themselves change over the next few decades, with a predicted increase in flexible and part-time work and the probable extension of working life until the age of 70. In- deed, we have to recognize that we cannot expect to retire at the age of 50 and then be able to support ourselves for another 40 or so years. Neither a solid pension scheme nor savings can carry people that long.
A further myth is that we will all live in loose, multigenerational families, experiencing increased emotional distancing from our kin. Evidence from a variety of studies across the developed world suggests that, if anything, the modern family is actually becoming more close-knit. Work carried out by the Oxford Institute in Scandinavia and in a Pan-European Family Care Study, for example, shows that despite the influence of the welfare state, over the past 10 yearn, people have come to value family relationships more than previously.
In the developed world, therefore, we can see actual benefits from population ageing: a better balance between age groups, mature and less volatile societies, with an emphasis on age integration. The issues will be very different in other parts of the world.
Herein lies another myth: that the less developed world will escape from demographic ageing. Instead, the mas- sive increase in the age of populations facing these countries-predicted to be up to one billion older people within 30 years--is potentially devastating. The problem is not only that demographic ageing is occurring at a far greater pace than we have seen in Western nations, but also that few if any developing countries have the economic development and infrastructure necessary to provide widespread public pensions and healthcare to these growing elderly populations.
As a result, older people are among the poorest in every developing country. They have the lowest levds of in- come, education and literacy, they lack savings and assets, have only limited access to work, and even in times of crisis are usually the last to be cared for under emergency aid programmes. Perhaps of most concern is healthcare,for as we conquer acute diseases, we are going to see a rapid increase in levels of chronic illness and disability, butno long-term care programmes or facilities to tackle this.
A.Since it is likely that a longer active working life will coincide with a predicted labor shortage resulting from a lack of younger workers, we need to provide the opportunities and training to encourage older men and women to remain economically productive. Our studies show that there are benefits from having an age-in-tegrated workforce. It is another myth that older workers are less productive than younger ones. In fact, thecombined energy of younger workers with the experience of older ones can lead to increased productivity--something from which young and old alike will benefit.
B. In 2001, in recognition of the significance of these demographic changes and the global challenges and opportunities that will accompany them, the Oxford Institute of Ageing was established at the University. It is made up of researchers in demography, sociology, economics, social anthropology, philosophy and psychology, with links to other specialists in medicine, biology, law and policy in research units across the U-
niversity. This cross-disciplinary approach has made it possible to challenge some of the most pervasive myths about ageing societies.
C. As Institute healthcare ethicist Kenneth Howse points out, family obligations towards older relatives may change over the next 20 years, but current indications are that families are retaining a strong responsibility to care. Furthermore, as societies age, the contributory role of older people as grandparents becomes more important. Work by Institute researchers on another European Union study on multi-generational families has highlighted the role that grandparents play by freeing up the responsibilities of the younger reproductive population.
D. It is clear that the changing demographic landscape poses challenges for the future. The necessity now is to develop appropriate economic, social and political structures to take advantage of the opportunities that mature societies will bring, while ensuring that there are appropriate safety nets for those left vulnerable within these populations--which will include both young and old alike.
E. Rather than fearing such a future, however, we should see this trend as a great success. It must undoubtedly
be a major achievement of civilization that most individuals within a society can expect to enjoy a long and healthy lifespan.
F. George Leeson, a demographer at the Institute, points out that while a number of cross-national studies have considered the determinants of spiraling healthcare costs, only one has found the explanatory factor to be the proportion of the population aged 65 and over. Rather, it is growth in income, lifestyle characteristics and environmental factors such as technology and drugs that are driving up healthcare costs. In addition, the costs are shifting between population groups. The key here, he adds, is to develop sufficiently flexible health service structures to shift not only economic resources but also personnel.
PartB(每小题2分。共计l0分)
短文赏析
媒体一再告诉我们未来三十年人口老龄化的急剧增长将会造成国家医疗保障系统崩溃，经济在养老金供需紧张的压力下瘫痪，在逐渐增长的照顾义务下家庭分崩离析。然而，牛津大学的工作人员开始对这一言论进行研究，揭露隐藏在这一言论背后的真相。人口老龄化无疑是一个现实。到2030年，一半西欧人1：7将超过50岁，预测平均预期寿命将增长40岁。一些人口学家甚至认为，在今天，西方国家出生的女婴一半会活到下个世纪。面对这些问题，作者认为我们应该视这种趋势为一种成功的象征，这是文明的成果。那时我们就征服了贫穷、疾病、饥荒和战争这些杀手。死亡率的下降和出生率的下降意味着年轻人的比重会越来越轻。作者认为我们应该对这一现象采取积极的态度。牛津大学老龄化问题研究中心的成立，标志着这一问题的重要性。中心成员对一些神秘言论一一进行解答。有些人认为医疗系统将会瘫痪，有些人认为有工作的.人员和无工作的人员的比例问题将会使西方国家经济崩溃，还有些人认为老年人的生产力不及年轻人的生产力高，还有人认为我们将会居住得离自己的亲人越来越远。研究中心人员都对这些言论提出了论证。
答案及解析
66.E【解析】第一段引出了人们对未来的担心，认为老龄化将会带来各种问题。第三段是对老龄化社会的肯定，认为这是文明发展的成果。“myth”一词含有杜撰的意思。一些人的担心是多余的。E起到承上启下的作用。
67.B【解析】该空缺下面的段落都是对每一个“myth”的揭示。谁来揭示呢?B项中提到牛津大学老龄化研究中心成立各个问题研究组。
68.F【解析】第一个“myth”认为随着人口老龄化的增长，西方国家的医疗体系会瘫痪。研究中的一位人口统计学家指出问题的关键是要建成灵活自由的医疗服务结构。
69.A【解析】第二个“myth”是担心人口老龄化会使工作人员越来越少。研究中心人员提出应该给年长的人提供各种培训机会。A中“Our studies show that there are benefits from having an age-inte—grated workforce.”说“研究表明不同年龄段的劳动力的融合也会有许多好处”。
70.C【解析】上一段中提到的“myth”是有关家庭关系的问题，担心家庭关系会因为老龄化问题而使亲人之间疏远。C中研究中心的伦理学家对这一问题进行了佐证。年长者对家庭需要贡献的角色越来越重要，所以这些担心都是没必要的，可以找到解决措施的。
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